Official 80% or higher · MLB
Correct and wrong.
Official stays free. Desk 65% sits under this book. Beta sits under desk. Sports do not share a record.
- Official
- 12–6–1
- 19 tickets · +2.05u at lock
- Open
- CLE +1.5
- Pending. Ledger append-only.
- Sits this season
- 210
- Calibration
- 15.5
- Model said 15.5 wins, market got 12 graded wins
Pushes and sits do not count as wins. Official stays free. Desk is a different book.
All official: MLB 12–6–1 · NFL 0–0–0 · NBA 0–0–0
Reliability · MLB official
Predicted bin → actual. Open tickets are not in this card. Desk never writes official 80% or higher. Each sport is its own book.
- Official 80–82%: 12/17 hit (71%)
- Official 83–85%: 0/1 hit (0%)
- Official 86%+: no tickets yet
Official MLB book is 12–6–1 · 19 tickets. Open tickets sit on Open — not in this count. Pushes and sits do not count as wins.
No more official picks. Live 65% book, full Markets True, lab, snapshots, extra alerts. Separate bankroll. Default 0.5u under −200.
Official stays free. $39 unlocks the 65% book, Markets True, and lab.
Past slates
19 graded official MLB tickets · 1 open not in the book · append-only
Show official tickets · 19Hide official tickets · 19
- CWS @ HOUPushBet Under 8 · 80% · lock -115 · final 2–6Lock -115 · close -115 · final 2–6 · 0.5u
Bet Under 8. Engine 80% of worlds stay under the posted total.
Mean 7.1 vs 8Home 61%84° · 7 mphChris ConroySean Burke / Hunter BrownWorlds80.4%Floor80%Market implied53.5%· 80.4% of simulated worlds vs market implied 53.5%
Sep 3, 7:10 PM EDT · locked Sep 3, 7:10 PM EDT - SF @ PITWrongBet Under 12.5 · 83% · lock · final 12–13fair -478 · 0.5u · final 12–13
Bet Under 12.5. 83% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.4 vs posted 9.5). Ask the book for this alternate.
Mean 8.4 vs 9.5Home 55%88° · 10 mphTodd TichenorLogan Webb / Paul SkenesWorlds82.7%Floor80%Market implied· 82.7% of simulated worlds vs market implied
Sep 1, 5:40 PM EDT · locked Sep 1, 5:40 PM EDT - PHI @ LAACorrectBet Under 12.5 · 81% · lock · final 5–3fair -432 · 0.5u · final 5–3
Bet Under 12.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.7 vs posted 9.5). Ask the book for this alternate.
Mean 8.7 vs 9.5Home 52%89° · 5 mphShane LivenspargerAndrew Painter / Reid DetmersWorlds81.2%Floor80%Market implied· 81.2% of simulated worlds vs market implied
Aug 28, 9:38 PM EDT · locked Aug 28, 8:38 PM EDT - CIN @ SFWrongBet CIN +1.5 · 81% · lock -257 · final 0–5Lock -257 · close -257 · final 0–5 · 0.5u
Bet CIN +1.5. Engine 81% cover.
Mean 10.0 vs 7.5Home 31%62° · 15 mphChris ConroyChase Burns / Carson WhisenhuntWorlds80.6%Floor80%Market implied72%· 80.6% of simulated worlds vs market implied 72%
Aug 24, 9:45 PM EDT · locked Aug 24, 8:45 PM EDT - HOU @ BALCorrectBet Under 11.5 · 81% · lock -110 · final 0–2Lock -110 · close -110 · final 0–2 · 0.5u
Bet Under 11.5. Engine 81% of worlds stay under the posted total.
Mean 8.9 vs 11.5Home 48%78° · 6 mphLeague AverageTBD / TBDWorlds81.1%Floor80%Market implied52.4%· 81.1% of simulated worlds vs market implied 52.4%
Aug 22, 7:05 PM EDT · locked Aug 22, 6:05 PM EDT - WSH @ NYYCorrectBet Under 11.5 · 80% · lock -115 · final 1–4Lock -115 · close -115 · final 1–4 · 0.5u
Bet Under 11.5. Engine 80% of worlds stay under the posted total.
Mean 8.8 vs 11.5Home 62%81° · 8 mphLeague AverageTBD / TBDWorlds80.4%Floor80%Market implied53.5%· 80.4% of simulated worlds vs market implied 53.5%
Aug 22, 3:05 PM EDT · locked Aug 22, 2:05 PM EDT - CHC @ LAACorrectBet Under 11.5 · 82% · lock -110 · final 4–2Lock -110 · close -110 · final 4–2 · 0.5u
Bet Under 11.5. Engine 82% of worlds stay under the posted total.
Mean 8.6 vs 11.5Home 47%84° · 4 mphLeague AverageTBD / TBDWorlds81.8%Floor80%Market implied52.4%· 81.8% of simulated worlds vs market implied 52.4%
Aug 21, 9:38 PM EDT · locked Aug 21, 8:38 PM EDT - LAA @ TEXCorrectBet Under 11.5 · 81% · lock · final 1–2fair -421 · 0.5u · final 1–2
Bet Under 11.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.1 vs posted 8.5). Ask the book for this alternate.
Mean 8.1 vs 8.5Home 49%74° · dome / no windAndy FletcherReid Detmers / MacKenzie GoreWorlds80.8%Floor80%Market implied· 80.8% of simulated worlds vs market implied
Aug 21, 8:15 PM EDT · locked Aug 21, 7:15 PM EDT - TB @ BOSWrongBet BOS ML · 81% · lock -110 · final 4–3Lock -110 · close -110 · final 4–3 · 0.5u
Bet BOS moneyline. Engine 81% of worlds — over the 80% floor.
Mean 9.1 vs 8.5Home 81%70° · 9 mphLeague AverageTBD / TBDWorlds80.8%Floor80%Market implied52.4%· 80.8% of simulated worlds vs market implied 52.4%
Aug 21, 7:10 PM EDT · locked Aug 21, 6:10 PM EDT - SF @ BOSCorrectBet Under 11.5 · 81% · lock · final 4–6fair -415 · 0.5u · final 4–6
Bet Under 11.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.0 vs posted 8). Ask the book for this alternate.
Mean 8.0 vs 8Home 52%69° · 5 mphJohn LibkaLogan Webb / Sonny GrayWorlds80.6%Floor80%Market implied· 80.6% of simulated worlds vs market implied
Aug 21, 7:10 PM EDT · locked Aug 21, 6:10 PM EDT - NYY @ CWSWrongBet CWS ML · 83% · lock +135 · final 12–8Lock +135 · close +135 · final 12–8 · 0.5u
Bet CWS moneyline. Engine 83% of worlds — over the 80% floor.
Mean 9.4 vs 9Home 83%77° · 7 mphLeague AverageTBD / TBDWorlds83.2%Floor80%Market implied42.6%· 83.2% of simulated worlds vs market implied 42.6%
Aug 21, 7:10 PM EDT · locked Aug 21, 6:10 PM EDT - COL @ NYYCorrectBet NYY +1.5 · 81% · lock -118 · final 3–10Lock -118 · final 3–10 · 0.5u
Bet NYY +1.5. Engine 80.8% of worlds. Ledger frozen.
Mean 8.4 vs 8.5Home 72%domeTBD / TBDWorlds80.8%Floor80%Market implied54.1%· 80.8% of simulated worlds vs market implied 54.1%
Sep 10, 12:08 PM EDT · locked Sep 10, 12:08 PM EDT - TB @ CLEWrongBet CLE +1.5 · 82% · lock -188 · final 7–3Lock -188 · close -188 · final 7–3 · 1u
Engine 82% cover CLE +1.5.
Mean 7.8 vs 6.5Home 78%domeNick Martinez / Shawn ArmstrongWorlds82%Floor80%Market implied65.3%· 82.0% of simulated worlds vs market implied 65.3%
Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT · locked Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT - TB @ CLEOpenBet CLE +1.5 · 82% · lock -196Lock -196 · close -196 · open · 1u
Engine 82% cover CLE +1.5.
Mean 7.8 vs 6.5Home 78%59° · 9 mphMark RippergerNick Martinez / Shawn ArmstrongWorlds82%Floor80%Market implied66.2%· 82.0% of simulated worlds vs market implied 66.2%
Oct 16, 7:00 PM EDT · locked Oct 16, 7:00 PM EDT - LAD @ MILCorrectBet MIL +1.5 · 82% · lock -160 · final 4–7Lock -160 · close -160 · final 4–7 · 1u
Engine 82% cover MIL +1.5.
Mean 8.0 vs 7Home 78%72° · dome / no windChris SegalYoshinobu Yamamoto / Logan HendersonWorlds82%Floor80%Market implied61.5%· 82.0% of simulated worlds vs market implied 61.5%
Oct 12, 4:00 PM EDT · locked Oct 12, 4:00 PM EDT - CLE @ CWSWrongBet CWS +1.5 · 82% · lock -181 · final 9–5Lock -181 · close -181 · final 9–5 · 1u
Engine 82% cover CWS +1.5.
Mean 8.0 vs 7Home 78%64° · 3 mphJansen ViscontiParker Messick / Hagen SmithWorlds82%Floor80%Market implied64.4%· 82.0% of simulated worlds vs market implied 64.4%
Oct 8, 7:00 PM EDT · locked Oct 8, 7:00 PM EDT - NYY @ TBCorrectBet TB +1.5 · 82% · lock -175 · final 2–5Lock -175 · close -175 · final 2–5 · 1u
Engine 82% cover TB +1.5.
Mean 7.8 vs 6.5Home 78%72° · dome / no windJeremie RehakCam Schlittler / Freddy PeraltaWorlds82%Floor80%Market implied63.6%· 82.0% of simulated worlds vs market implied 63.6%
Oct 5, 7:00 PM EDT · locked Oct 5, 7:00 PM EDT - PHI @ ATLCorrectBet ATL +1.5 · 82% · lock -182 · final 4–3Lock -182 · close -182 · final 4–3 · 1u
Engine 82% cover ATL +1.5.
Mean 8.1 vs 7Home 78%84° · 3 mphAdam BeckCristopher Sánchez / Tyler MahleWorlds82%Floor80%Market implied64.5%· 82.0% of simulated worlds vs market implied 64.5%
Sep 30, 1:00 PM EDT · locked Sep 30, 1:00 PM EDT - PHI @ ATLCorrectBet ATL +1.5 · 82% · lock -178 · final 3–5Lock -178 · close -178 · final 3–5 · 1u
Engine 82% cover ATL +1.5.
Mean 8.1 vs 7Home 78%80° · 3 mphDan MerzelJesús Luzardo / Chris SaleWorlds82%Floor80%Market implied64%· 82.0% of simulated worlds vs market implied 64%
Sep 29, 1:00 PM EDT · locked Sep 29, 1:00 PM EDT - COL @ NYYCorrectBet NYY +1.5 · 80% · lock -155 · final 1–6Lock -155 · close -155 · final 1–6 · 0.5u
Engine 80% cover.
Mean 8.2 vs 7.5Home 73%domeTomoyuki Sugano / Will WarrenWorlds80.4%Floor80%Market implied60.8%· 80.4% of simulated worlds vs market implied 60.8%
Sep 9, 12:08 AM EDT · locked Sep 9, 12:08 AM EDT